The Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Rice in the Rasht County

Given the climatic changes and threats to food security in recent years, they have have become a major issue in agricultural climatology. The present study aimed to investigate the status of agricultural climate suitable for the cultivation of rice in the light of the influential climatic conditions in the past. Given the effect of temperature and the amount of precipitations on rice growth and the sensitivity of rice to these two variables, the study examined the predicted future temperature and rainfall and their effects on rice. Data related to the temperature and rainfalls were obtained from the Meteorological Organization. Additionally, the temperature and agricultural potential of the region were considered. By preparing the agricultural calendar for the cultivation of rice, the correlation between temperature, precipitation and rice productivity was calculated using the Spearman Correlation coefficient. By using the SDSM model, future data and temperature and precipitation return period were determined in the SMADA software. The results demonstrated that minimum spring temperature tended to be late spring. The minimum temperature had the highest impact in April, the maximum temperature had the highest impact in July and the maximum rainfall had the highest effect in both June and July. Based on the results of the prediction models, the studied region would experience an increase in temperature and rainfall by providing favorable conditions for the cultivation of rice. However, delays in the cold season and shortness of the growth period increased the risks associated with the cultivation of rice in this period.